Property Herald: Trade War Tensions Achieve What Property Cooling Measures Couldn't

Summary

Two new private residential launches this weekend achieved sales of lower than the average sales of 71.2% of the previous launches in the 1Q 2025. The lower sales are mainly due to the market uncertainty arising from the US trade policies.

The silver lining from the lower housing demand is that it also lowers the risk of further government intervention in the private property market, resulting in most homebuyers retreating to adopt a wait-and-see strategy.

Going upward, sales of between 20% and 40% of the total number of units in the development during the first weekend of the launch will become the new normal for the new residential launches during this period of economic and financial market uncertainties.

Introduction

Two new private residential developments were launched this weekend. Both developments are 99-year leasehold properties.

Project Name	Street Name	Total no. of units	% of total no. of units sold	Average selling price ($psf)
Bloomsbury Residences	Media Circle	358	25.1%	$2,474
One Marina Gardens	Marina Gardens Lane	937	37.1%	$2,953

The two projects are Bloomsbury Residences, a 358-unit residential project located at Media Circle and the 937-unit One Marina Gardens located near Gardens by the Bay in Marina South.

Litmus test after Trump's Liberation Day

The two projects are the first private residential developments to be launched after the US Trump administration unleashed its global trade war in what the White House called "Liberation Day" in early April. The US trade policy created massive uncertainties across markets and economies worldwide.

About 37.1% of the 937 units at One Marina Gardens and 25.2% of the 358 units at Bloomsbury Residences were reportedly sold this weekend. The sales in percentage terms at these projects paled by comparison to the average 71.2% of the seven earlier major residential project launched in the first three months of this year.

The earlier private residential launches were unburdened by trade war tensions. Therefore, the relatively lower sales at the two new launches this weekend is mainly due to the market uncertainties arising from the US trade policies, resulting in most homebuyers retreating to adopt a wait-and-see strategy.

Silver Lining

Achieving sales of more than 50% of all the units in the project during the launch of a major residential development is abnormal in a stable property market.

With the coming General Election, the question on housing affordability could become a major political issue among the contesting parties. Coupled with the hot residential primary market, there is speculation that the government could introduce another round of property cooling measures to rein in the escalating demand and rising property prices.

The existing property cooling measures, including the punitive Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) regime, could not stop homebuyers from snapping properties at new launches and developers raising the prices of their new projects.

It appears that the uncertainties from the trade war had achieved what the government's cooling measures could not, which is to tame the primary housing market, at least for the short therm.

The silver lining is that the pull-back by homebuyers has also lowered the risk of further government intervention in the private property market.

The New Normal: Less than 50% sales in the first weekend

The sales at these two new launches this weekend provide the litmus test for new residential launches in the coming weeks. Going forward, sales of less than 50% of the total number of units in the development during the first weekend of the launch will become the new normal for the new residential launches during this period of economic and financial market uncertainties.